Press review: BRICS set to transform global economy as Belarus leader seeks seventh term

MOSCOW, October 24. /TASS/. BRICS leaders vow to strengthen cooperation in global affairs and finance; Zelensky proposes a new first step to end the hot phase of conflict with Russia; and Israel seeks changes to a UN Security Council resolution on Lebanon. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
 
BRICS leaders announced new projects for the association on the second day of the summit in Kazan, including an investment platform to support national economies. According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the platform is expected to become a powerful tool to assist the countries of the association and provide access to financial resources for other states. At the same time, BRICS nations will continue to strengthen their position in the global economy, while Western countries persist in damaging their economies by using the dollar as a weapon to achieve political goals, Izvestia reported. Other issues discussed at the summit included current geopolitical crises, particularly ways to resolve the Ukrainian conflict.
In total, delegations from 36 countries (22 represented by heads of state) and six international organizations attended the summit. Saudi Arabia, which was scheduled to become a full member of the organization earlier this year, remained an invited participant. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who has a separate meeting scheduled with the Russian president, also attended the event in Kazan.
One of the most significant issues on the agenda was the deepening of financial cooperation within the BRICS framework. New BRICS mechanisms were also announced at the meeting – specifically, the creation of an investment platform to support national economies and the countries of the Global South and East. The establishment of a new global financial and payment system was another key topic discussed during the summit. The Russian Finance Ministry has already announced the BRICS Bridge platform for payments in national currencies, including digital currencies.
“Special attention was rightly paid to investments—these are open systems, allowing both BRICS countries and partners to participate. It is crucial that companies can join regardless of their country of origin. In this case, it represents a system for creating growth and development potential for many years to come,” said Natalia Poluyanova, a member of the State Duma Committee on Small and Medium Business, to Izvestia.
The main geopolitical crises were also addressed during the extended portion of the summit, including the Ukrainian conflict. The situation in the Middle East was also a topic of discussion. Today, BRICS countries see only two scenarios for the conflict’s development, both of which are unfavorable, expert on international relations in the Middle East Artem Tkachev told the newspaper.
“The first scenario involves the engagement of regional powers, including Iran, in direct confrontation with Israel, potentially turning Lebanon into a major battleground. A direct hot conflict between Israel and Iran could trigger a chain reaction involving other Arab nations. The second scenario envisions the conflict escalating into a broader regional crisis, involving not only neighboring countries but also the formation of ‘pro-Arab’ and ‘pro-Israeli’ coalitions. A minor regional conflict could lead to the involvement of non-regional players,” he explained to Izvestia.
The BRICS countries adopted the Kazan Declaration, which supports comprehensive reform of the UN, including its Security Council, to enhance democracy, representativeness, and efficiency. The main topics of the document also encompassed the development of the association, positions on various global issues, sanctions, and the resolution of regional crises, including those in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The second day of the summit concluded with a ceremonial reception for the leaders of the BRICS countries and other summit participants, providing an opportunity for personal interactions. In particular, the high-ranking guests agreed on new visits—Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is planning another trip to Russia, with dates to be determined soon. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin assured Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan that he would certainly visit his country.
 
According to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, an agreement to refrain from mutual attacks on energy infrastructure and to ensure freedom of navigation could signal a de-escalation of the conflict, he stated in an interview with the Financial Times. However, experts currently believe that such an agreement is unlikely, Vedomosti reports.
In late September, Zelensky visited the United States, where he discussed a “victory plan” with President Joe Biden. This plan consists of several components: inviting Ukraine to NATO by the end of the conflict, deploying a “non-nuclear deterrence package” against Moscow on its territory, offering allied air defenses to intercept Russian missiles over Ukrainian territory, and even inviting the development of the country’s critical mineral resources. However, this visit did not bolster Zelensky’s support for Ukraine in the United States, Vedomosti notes. In an interview with Politico on October 23, Washington’s ambassador to NATO, Julianne Smith, stated that the alliance was not prepared to offer Kiev membership or an invitation.
As long as Ukrainian forces remain in Russia’s Kursk Region, peace talks will be unacceptable for Russia, according to Ivan Skorikov, head of the Ukraine department at the Council of International Schools (CIS), who spoke to Vedomosti. He indicated that Zelensky began discussing de-escalation due to the failure of his “victory plan.” This plan included even greater militarization of Ukraine, which could be overlooked if Donald Trump wins the US elections. Kiev is already preparing for such an outcome, he added.
Trump views the Ukrainian issue as an opportunity to present himself as a peacemaker, which may lead him to pressure Zelensky into adopting a more constructive stance. Consequently, Zelensky may issue statements that contradict his earlier assertive rhetoric, Skorikov believes.
“Let Zelensky flood the Russian political landscape with various ideas; no one will negotiate with him,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs. He argued that Russia has already complicated its opponent’s position by attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Furthermore, the specter of Trump looms over the situation – Kiev and Europe are anxiously awaiting the potential repercussions of his election victory, uncertain of what to expect from him, the expert concluded.
 
Israel is seeking to amend UN Security Council Resolution 1701 concerning Lebanon to neutralize the threat posed by the Shiite movement Hezbollah, a source informed Izvestia. Specifically, this involves expanding the mandate of peacekeepers, who may be granted the authority to conduct house searches without prior coordination with the Lebanese army. Russia’s First Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, Dmitry Polyansky, told Izvestia that while discussions about adopting a new resolution for a ceasefire are occurring, the likelihood of such adoption remains low.
“The Israeli proposal to amend Resolution 1701 pertains solely to the Lebanese side. The idea is to allow international forces to expand their area of responsibility and conduct searches of homes and sites without needing to coordinate with the Lebanese army or government,” the source explained to the newspaper.
Dmitry Gendelman, adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, did not dismiss the possibility that a ceasefire agreement could be in Israel’s interest following military actions along the Lebanese-Israeli border, aimed at ensuring security in the northern regions of the country. “The final terms of the agreement will take into account the Israeli government’s decision regarding the safe return of residents in the north to their homes,” he told Izvestia.
Russia’s First Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN Dmitry Polyansky reiterated to the newspaper that discussions are indeed ongoing regarding the potential adoption of a new Security Council resolution for a ceasefire in Lebanon. “Such proposals are being made, but given the ongoing support of Israel by the United States, the likelihood of the UN Security Council adopting such a document is, in my opinion, low. We, along with most members of the Security Council, clearly and unequivocally support UN peacekeepers and the unconditional implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701,” he stated.
In turn, Hezbollah’s chief negotiator, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, expressed conditional openness to altering the mechanisms for implementing Resolution 1701, but emphasized that the UN must propose a new mechanism that guarantees an end to all violations by Israel. According to Izvestia’s source, Berri categorically rejected the deployment of international forces along the border with Syria, stating that this contradicts the nature of Syrian-Lebanese relations.
 
On October 23, the House of Representatives (the lower house of the Belarusian parliament) scheduled the presidential elections for January 26, 2025. The chairman of the republic’s Central Election Commission, Igor Karpenko, announced that the commission was prepared to initiate the election campaign. Later that day, the country’s leader, Alexander Lukashenko, confirmed his intention to run again in the presidential elections, Vedomosti reports.
Political scientist and editor-in-chief of Eurasia.Expert, Alexander Nosovich, believes that the choice of date may be linked to the timing of the change in presidential administration following the elections in November 2024. He stated that Lukashenko aims to protect himself from potential political risks in the event of Western intervention.
Nosovich also noted that rumors regarding the late Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei potentially heading an alternative power center were exaggerated. “Although his ministry pursued a policy of rapprochement with the United States and Europe, after the August 2020 protests, Makei shifted geopolitically toward Russia on the president’s orders,” he told Vedomosti.
The outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine in 2022 significantly influenced Belarus’s pivot to the East, Nosovich added. Minsk is acutely aware of the risks associated with its position on the geopolitical fault line of Europe. In this context, he believes the likelihood of a repeat of the 2020 protests in Belarus is minimal.
The potential end of the active phase of hostilities in Ukraine could also be a factor affecting the timing of the presidential elections in Belarus, according to Associate Professor at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky. In his opinion, Lukashenko wishes to secure a new term before this phase concludes. “The date is determined by the international situation and the desire to maintain stability in the country,” he told Vedomosti.
 
In the first nine months of 2024, Russia and Saudi Arabia shipped 3.2 mln barrels of oil per day (bpd) and 4.9 mln bpd, respectively, to Asian countries, which represents declines of 5% and 7% compared to the previous year, according to data cited by the Argus pricing agency. Total imports by Asian countries fell by 1.8% to 22.98 mln bpd, driven by a decrease in oil consumption in China amid a crisis in the country’s construction industry and its efforts to transition to alternative fuels, Kommersant reports.
Russia and Saudi Arabia are collaborating under the OPEC+ agreement to limit oil production. Insufficient supplies of Saudi oil, coupled with relatively high prices compared to competing grades, have contributed to the decline in import volumes, Argus concluded. Overall, Asian seaborne imports decreased by 1.8% to 22.98 mln bpd over the nine-month period. Other major oil suppliers to Asia – such as the UAE (13% share), Iraq (10%), and the US (7%) – increased supplies by a combined 250,000 bpd. The most significant decline in supplies to Asia was observed in China, the world’s largest oil importer, which reduced its purchases by 410,000 bpd to 9.89 mln bpd.
At the beginning of the year, market participants anticipated active growth in demand for raw materials in China due to the planned commissioning of new refineries, among other factors. However, the ongoing crisis in the country’s construction sector continues to negatively impact diesel fuel consumption, Argus noted. Additionally, China is actively introducing vehicles powered by new energy sources, which is expected to slow the growth rate of fuel demand.
Victor Katona, an analyst at Kpler, believes that China faces the dilemma of declining demand and shrinking refining margins as the global supply of oil products normalizes. He pointed out that neither the lingering effects of COVID-19, the sanctions against Russia, nor the Houthi attacks on the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are causing regional shortages or disruptions.
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